Heavy Duty Trucking, September 2019

best return for their customers Peterbilt for example has identified three markets with the best prospects for success in these early days Peterbilt believes three applications refuse regional and urban pickup and delivery represent the best opportunity for immediate and near term payback for our customers says Peterbilt General Manager Jason Skoog We will be placing electric versions of the Model 579 520 and 220 into customers hands this year for performance evaluations At the moment charging battery electric vehicles remains a bit of a stumbling block It can take up to eight hours to fully charge a large battery pack They can be charged faster but that has long term implications and shortens the life of the batteries Applications such as refuse and urban P D lend themselves well to overnight charging but Class 8 regional could be hampered by lower utilization rates due to charging times The charging infrastructure is also in its very early days and not yet even close to being optimized Truck makers and fleets are working with utility companies to move this forward but on site does require a substantial commitment from both the carrier and the utility company This is still a work in progress How do we pay for electric trucks We have all heard the toenail curling numbers tossed around regarding EV pricing They wont be cheap but when the early dust has settled they may not be as pricey as some fear As battery production increases prices are bound to fall lower still before eventually stabilizing to some extent Battery prices are trending down now but we dont know where that price is going Mihelic says Increased supply will bring the cost down until demand catches up If we get to building 20000 electric trucks a year that will certainly create new demand for raw material that wasnt there before Where does pricing go in a high demand low supply world The price always goes up Dakota Semler co founder and chief executive of start up Xos Trucks formerly Thor Trucks said last year during a conference call with industry analyst Stifel that he expects to bring a truck to market with a 100 to 300 mile range for between 150000 and 250000 without subsidies Medium duty truck maker Workhorse and UPS have said they could build a Class 6 truck for the same price as the diesel vehicle it was replacing without any incentives But subsidies and grants will be part of the game for the foreseeable future as various governments try to encourage adoption of zero emissions vehicles California wants drivers to migrate us to zero emissions vehicles by 2045 so they are setting up the infrastructure for grants and tax breaks for the long term Mihelic says I expect grants and incentives will be around for a long while If these vehicles are too expensive people wont buy them Meanwhile Nikolas pricing model is a lease deal that will see the customer pay a per mile rate for the truck with warranty maintenance and hydrogen fuel included As of April 2019 the plan called for a 1 million mile or 84 month trade in cycle with a lease rate of 90 cents per mile The battery electric business and operating model is becoming clearer and we now have a firmer idea of what it will look like in a few years time but the hydrogen model is less clear Fuel cells have yet to prove themselves in this application though they have been proven in transit bus applications around the world Hydrogen production suffers from the fact that the conversion of some form of energy into hydrogen gas and back to electricity is pretty inefficient in most cases However Nikolas idea of a dedicated solar grid harvesting currently untapped solar energy for hydrogen production rather than relying on traditional sources of energy is intriguing It would be hugely capital intensive to get off the ground but the solar energy becomes essentially free Batteries on the other hand will continue to evolve and energy densities are expected to improve over time But the raw materials will always be subject to market forces extraction costs speculation and even geo political concerns The next decade or so as electric vehicle designs stabilize and customer acceptance rises will be interesting indeed Will you be along for the ride HDT SEPTEMBER 2019 56 WWW TRUCKINGINFO COM ALTERNATIVE FUELS ELECTRIC The hydrogen fuel cell stack is something new to Class 8 trucks Nikola started with a clean sheet design Will traditional OEMs find ways to package this technology on existing chassis or start fresh with purpose built designs As chassis integration evolves electric trucks will become lighter and less expensive Wheel end motors could replace traditional drive shafts and differential axles PHOTOS JIM PARK