Heavy Duty Trucking, November 2018

Hotline TRUCKINGS MOST RESPECTED BUSINESS REPORT Carriers really could hire enough drivers to support truck buying As North American Class 8 orders of 146000 set another record in the third quarter skeptics wonder how fleets can fill all these trucks given the driver shortage and a national unemployment rate of 37 the lowest in 49 years But its not as daunting as it might appear FTR estimates that 105000 more drivers would be needed in 2019 to fill the Class 8 trucks we expect to be sold over and above replacement demand Thats just over 3 of the current Class 8 driver force which FTR estimates at 337 million Payroll job growth in for hire trucking currently is running above 2 For hire carriers added 4900 payroll jobs in September on top of 5900 added in August according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Thats just under one third of the 33100 jobs added since September 2017 So even as the overall job market has tightened trucking companies hiring has accelerated Not all those jobs are driving of course but most certainly are Also 33100 jobs added in a year is hardly pushing the limit if history is any guide On a year over year basis the industry was adding more payroll jobs than that every month from June 2014 through August 2015 And while the month over month m m increase in September was solid weve seen higher m m increases in 23 months since 2010 including three months in 2018 So even with a low unemployment rate continued growth seems feasible especially given solid pay increases this year Not all driving jobs show up in the payroll figures for for hire trucking however The biggest omission is private fleets Another is leased and independent owner operators This segment is harder to assess but available data suggests we are seeing growth FTRs analysis of newly authorized for hire carriers most of which we would classify as independent owner operators shows a surge of new carriers in the first half of 2018 Given the strength in freight demand and rates this isnt surprising As more used equipment becomes available both on the open market and through lease purchase programs at carriers we likely will see continued strong growth in owner operators Because most new owner operators naturally come from the ranks of company drivers carriers solid payroll job growth means that the overall increase in driver capacity is even higher Avery Vise For more information visit www FTRintel com HDT or call FTR at 888 988 1699 U S RETAIL TRUCK SALES REPORT SEPTEMBER 2018 MANUFACTURER CLASS 8 33001 LBS OVER CLASS 7 26001 33000 LBS CLASS 6 19501 26000 LBS CLASS 3 4 5 10001 19500 LBS SEP SALES YDT SALES YTD SHARE SEP SALES YDT SALES YTD SHARE SEP SALES YDT SALES YTD SHARE SEP SALES YDT SALES YTD SHARE COMPILED BY HEAVY DUTY TRUCKING MAGAZINE SOURCE WARDS COMMUNICATIONS Chevrolet 3057 31664 1079 Chevrolet LCF 2 43 008 181 1827 062 Dodge Ram 13198 114382 3897 Ford 194 1423 299 2106 15423 2841 11847 108881 3710 Freightliner 8415 64585 3624 2034 22263 4681 1713 17604 3242 649 4477 153 GMC 1559 12894 439 Hino 176 1494 314 582 5771 1063 270 2698 092 International 3643 24306 1364 1769 13179 2771 1348 12438 2291 2 17 001 Isuzu 97 905 167 1708 16036 546 Kenworth 3693 26176 1469 470 3469 729 259 2026 373 5 31 001 Mack 1560 12940 726 Mitsubishi Fuso 71 601 020 Peterbilt 3638 26605 1493 581 5735 1206 3 86 016 8 000 Volvo 2313 19398 1088 Western Star 386 4216 237 Other 9 001 Totals 23648 178235 100 5224 47563 100 6110 54296 100 32547 293516 100 Note Mitsubishi Fuso is no longer reporting as of August 2018 Mitsubishi Fuso is estimated and will be for the remainder of the year SOURCE BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS For Hire Trucking Jobs payroll employment thousands seasonally adjusted NOVEMBER 2018 HDT 19 WWW TRUCKINGINFO COM