Heavy Duty Trucking, March 2020

Hotlinenews TRUCKINGS MOST RESPECTED BUSINESS REPORT Economic conditions not good for freight in Q4 U S gross domestic product GDP was quite steady in 2019 growing at an annualized rate of 21 in the third and fourth quarter and 2 in the second quarter The 2019 first quarter was stronger at 31 but that number was skewed thanks to a sizeable reduction in imports that had been pulled forward into the fourth quarter of 2018 to avoid anticipated tariffs GDP includes activities that do not reflect the demand for freight at least not directly The most significant example is the entire service sector but imports are a big disconnect too In calculating GDP the federal government does not merely exclude imports it counts imports as a negative However imports are a substantial positive contributor to freight volume A better measure of how the economy affects freight is the GDP Goods Transport Sector When manufacturing activity ramped up in 2017 GTS outpaced GDP significantly The industrial sector then softened so 2018 was mixed on GDP versus GTS and GDP 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 GDP VS GDP GOODS TRANSPORT Q Q seasonally adjusted annual rate SAAR GDP GDP Goods Transport Sector A better measure of how the economy affects freight is the GDP Goods Transport Sector outpaced GTS in all four quarters of 2019 By the fourth quarter of 2019 the Goods Transport Sector was worse than soft it was negative and markedly so As noted above bottom line GDP growth was identical in the third and fourth quarters but GTS rose 14 in the third quarter and fell 51 in the fourth according to preliminary figures from the Bureau of Economic Analysis The decline in the transport related economic indicator resulted from two principal factors A drop in imports and weak growth in inventories The latter factor however offers hope for 2020 Leaner imports could spur inventory replenishment which could boost freight volumes a bit A slowdown in imports due to the coronavirus outbreak in China could accelerate that trend but the economic threats surely outweigh that benefit unless the outbreak is contained quickly Avery Vise For more information visit www FTRIntel com HDT or call FTR at 888 988 1699 U S RETAIL TRUCK SALES REPORT JANUARY 2020 MANUFACTURER CLASS 8 33001 LBS OVER CLASS 7 26001 33000 LBS CLASS 6 19501 26000 LBS CLASS 3 4 5 10001 19500 LBS DEC SALES YDT SALES YTD SHARE DEC SALES YDT SALES YTD SHARE DEC SALES YDT SALES YTD SHARE DEC SALES YDT SALES YTD SHARE MARCH 2020 HDT 15 WWW TRUCKINGINFO COM COMPILED BY HEAVY DUTY TRUCKING MAGAZINE SOURCE WARDS COMMUNICATIONS Chevrolet 109 109 275 1998 1998 1114 Chevrolet LCF 13 13 033 270 270 150 Dodge Ram 98 98 235 739 739 1866 12687 12687 7071 Ford 6060 6060 3873 1785 1785 4271 1196 1196 3019 357 357 199 Freightliner 922 922 514 GMC 13 13 008 115 115 275 334 334 843 193 193 108 Hino 1939 1939 1239 1074 1074 2570 1264 1264 3191 106 106 059 International 67 67 169 1404 1404 782 Isuzu 2078 2078 1328 455 455 1089 235 235 593 5 5 003 Kenworth 977 977 624 Mack Peterbilt 2669 2669 1706 652 652 1560 4 4 010 1 1 001 Volvo 1468 1468 938 Western Star 441 441 282 Totals 15645 15645 100 4179 4179 100 3961 3961 100 17943 17943 100 SOURCE BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS FTR WWW FTRINTEL COM 6 2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2019 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4