Heavy Duty Trucking, March 2018
during that time it was always expanding but at times the rate of expansion was less strong than at other times When the gross domestic product was in a higher gear which meant more goods were being shipped by truck the freight markets either led the way or followed When the GDP was lower trucking followed the same pattern As 2017 moved forward things once again improved in terms in the amount of freight rates and the overall economy Truck sales started booming again and the economy turned in its first back to back quarters of better than 3 annualized growth in years with the final quarter of last year not far behind Recent numbers show heavy truck orders in January soared with one account showing orders 47200 January truck orders source FTR estimate 25 4Q GDP growth source U S Commerce Department 223 National average van freight spot rate for week ending Feb 3 SOURCE DAT hit their highest level since 2006 Some believe truck sales in 2018 may be end up the best on record after a stunning 2017 Couple all of this with an economy thats expected to keep growing around its current rate of 25 3 annually a good supply of freight and rates remaining healthy thanks to tight capacity and its time to get out the confetti right Maybe not Ignoring the fluctuations in the stock market in February after all Wall Street is not the economy there are some concerns that could slow down the economy 1 Interest rates are all but guaranteed to head higher this year and next thanks to expected moves by the Federal Reserve That can curtail spending on many levels from corporations to individuals 2 Total freight shipments in the final quarter of last year while still expanding increased by the smallest amount of any quarter in 2017 according to the U S Bank Freight Payment Index That could be just freight following a slightly slower overall economy Or it could also be a signal that 2018 could see an economy growing more slowly than last year 3 Spot freight rates slid through early February although theyre still not far from multi year highs hit early in the year The bottom line This tight capacity cant last forever At press time some analysts were saying the risks of an economic slowdown were rising And if youre not smart about fleet growth that could leave you and your fleet with too many rigs and less business with history repeating itself Evan Lockridge covers business and economic news for HDT both in this monthly column and on Truckinginfo com A freelance writer he has been covering the trucking industry in print online and on the air since 1991 BETTER PLANNING Predictive analytics and actionable information mean greater equipment uptime and stronger compliance Contact Us tmwsystems com phone 18004016682 MARCH 2018 HDT 25 WWW TRUCKINGINFO COM
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