Heavy Duty Trucking, April 2019

APRIL 2019 HDT 19 WWW TRUCKINGINFO COM February jobs report no real cause for concern For more than eight years the U S economy typically has added more often far more than 100000 payroll jobs per month on a seasonally adjusted basis So when we add just 20000 nonfarm jobs in a month as we did in February according to preliminary Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates we naturally take note The last time we added fewer than 20000 jobs in a month was September 2017 However a single months data is nothing to worry about we get outlier months from time to time When we examine averages over time we see that in the past three months we added just 4000 fewer jobs per month than we did in the past six months The six month average is a bit lower than the 12 month average which in turn was just a bit lower than the five year average Of course if March and April were to show similarly depressed job creation or even losses we would have to conclude that the labor market is cooling Dry van and refrigerated transportation would be most affected because they are tied closely to consumer spending which is tied to employment levels Again the February weakness alone doesnt mean we are going there anytime soon Another factor to consider BLS revised previous initial estimates higher The initial report for January was that the economy added 304000 payroll jobs but the February report revised that upward to 311000 jobs The upshot is that February payroll employment was 32000 jobs higher than the preliminary January estimate Prior month revisions change the picture even more when you look at transportation For hire trucking added just 900 jobs in February but due to upward revisions in January and December the employment level in trucking is 2700 jobs above the initial January data Revisions were far more significant for couriers and messengers i e parcel and local delivery The sector lost 9700 jobs in February according to preliminary BLS estimates However owing to major upward revisions in December and January the February employment level is 5900 jobs higher than the initial January estimates Also on a year over year basis couriers and messengers is the nations second fastest growing industry in payroll job growth reflecting the burgeoning e commerce sector Avery Vise For more information visit www FTRintel com HDT or call FTR at 888 988 1699 U S RETAIL TRUCK SALES REPORT FEBRUARY 2019 MANUFACTURER CLASS 8 33001 LBS OVER CLASS 7 26001 33000 LBS CLASS 6 19501 26000 LBS CLASS 3 4 5 10001 19500 LBS JAN SALES YDT SALES YTD SHARE JAN SALES YDT SALES YTD SHARE JAN SALES YDT SALES YTD SHARE JAN SALES YDT SALES YTD SHARE COMPILED BY HEAVY DUTY TRUCKING MAGAZINE SOURCE WARDS COMMUNICATIONS Chevrolet 61 69 055 3256 5495 1092 Chevrolet LCF 9 12 009 188 329 065 Dodge Ram 11031 19876 3949 Ford 306 647 646 1116 2232 1766 9614 19228 3820 Freightliner 8018 17223 4300 2198 4881 4873 1873 4193 3318 365 920 183 GMC 764 1724 342 Hino 198 300 299 604 1047 828 206 338 067 International 2739 5889 1470 1079 2423 2419 1946 4479 3544 2 4 001 Isuzu 61 132 104 1392 2413 479 Kenworth 2780 5053 1262 343 718 717 245 469 371 2 7 001 Mack 1163 2182 545 Peterbilt 3029 5498 1373 503 1048 1046 2 5 004 2 000 Volvo 1743 3340 834 Western Star 386 865 216 Other 000 Totals 19858 40050 100 4627 10017 100 5917 12638 100 26820 50336 100 Taken alone the weak February jobs report doesnt mean the labor market is cooling which if it did would reduce consumer spending SOURCE BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS FTR